St. Louis Blues Must Consider Buyout This Summer

Season	Real Cap Hit	Buyout Cap Hit	Savings
2024-25	$6,500,000	$333,333	$6,166,667
2025-26	$6,500,000	$2,333,333	$4,166,667
2026-27	$6,500,000	$2,833,333	$3,666,667
2027-28	$0	$2,333,333	-$2,333,333
2028-29	$0	$2,333,333	-$2,333,333
2029-30	$0	$2,333,333	-$2,333,333

Torey Krug came to the Blues as an expensive free agent signing immediately ahead of the departure of then-captain Alex Pietrangelo, who would sign with the Vegas Golden Knights. Krug was a good defenseman, and has been ok in stretches with the Blues, but it has never been a fit in St. Louis. He is an undersized, transition defenseman, and, while the Blues claim to want to evolve toward that game, they are too burdened by slower, older players to truly be a fit for Krug’s style. It is well known that Armstrong has already tried to move Krug’s contract in one trade to the Philadelphia Flyers, which he blocked.

Far from having the rebound season Blues fans hoped for, Krug has been awful this season. He has provided 35 assists, a high for his time with the Blues, but he has also posted a minus-31 and looked like a non-factor (or worse) in his own zone. Whether age has caught up to him or he’s bitter about the attempted trade, it doesn’t look likely he will ever be a plus player for the Blues. And it is hard to imagine that another team would take a chance on him in a trade, even if he would allow it.

So would the Blues consider a buyout? If the team wants to compete next season, it is an extremely compelling option. Due to the structure of his deal, the Blues would save almost all of his $6.5 million salary cap hit during the 2024-25 season, giving them plenty of room to add one or two impact players that could help them push for the postseason. The downside to that is that the buyout would carry a heavier cap hit during the “ghost” seasons where he would not have been on the roster. Presumably, the NHL salary cap will continue to climb, and the $2.33 million the Blues would owe from 2027-2030 would be pretty manageable. Armstrong likely has no other option to move on from Krug, so he has to seriously consider this option. Krug could go onto sign with a team for league minimum and provide some offense from the blueline, without the weight of the big contract over his head.

Justin Faulk

Season	Real Cap Hit	Buyout Cap Hit	Savings
2024-25	$6,500,000	$3,277,778	$3,222,222
2025-26	$6,500,000	$3,527,778	$2,972,222
2026-27	$6,500,000	$3,527,778	$2,972,222
2027-28	$0	$1,527,778	-$1,527,778
2028-29	$0	$1,527,778	-$1,527,778
2029-30	$0	$1,527,778	-$1,527,778

It is noteworthy that, while Krug and Justin Faulk have identical contracts remaining in terms of seasons left and average annual value (AAV), their buyouts look significantly different. Where Krug’s offers significant instant cap relief, Faulk’s only removes about half of his contract burden for the next three seasons but is cheaper for the Blues in the “ghost” seasons beyond 2026-27.

Unlike Krug, Faulk has at times excelled with St. Louis, looking at his best like a fringe first-pairing defenseman who could eat minutes and create offense. But it has been a while since the Blues have seen his best, and the 2023-24 season seems to have been his worst so far. At just 32, it is hard to imagine that age is catching up to him, though he just played his 900th game at the start of April. If he plays two more seasons with the Blues (and stays healthy), he will play his 1000th early in the 2025-26 campaign. But can the team afford to wait that long?

The answer is most likely “yes,” given that Armstrong’s philosophy is probably to compete as soon as possible. That might not be the best decision for the long-term health of the franchise, but neither Armstrong nor owner Tom Stillman has shown much appetite for missing the playoffs. And while a bounceback is far from a guarantee with Faulk, the possibility of one, and the associated value for the team, outweighs the $3.2 million they would save buying him out. If the Blues really want to commit to a fuller rebuild, Faulk is a smart candidate for a buyout, as his deal will cost less than Krug’s after three seasons. But it is likely that if Armstrong does choose to invoke a tool he has not yet used in his St. Louis tenure, he will do it to save the most money right away, so that the team can compete in the 2024-25 season.

Nick Leddy

Season	Real Cap Hit	Buyout Cap Hit	Savings
2024-25	$4,000,000	$1,583,333	$2,416,667
2025-26	$4,000,000	$2,083,333	$1,916,667
2026-27	$0	$1,083,333	-$1,083,333
2027-28	$0	$1,083,333	-$1,083,333

With that said, there is one more buyout Armstrong would have to consider, that of Nick Leddy. After joining the Blues in a 2022 trade deadline deal from the Detroit Red Wings, Armstrong offered him a four-year extension that immediately called to mind the contract offered to Marco Scandella several seasons before. Once again, the GM was paying up to keep a player rather than lose him as a rental, and, once again, he would go onto regret it.

Leddy has not been good with the Blues. Much like Krug, his speed and transition skills don’t complement the entire roster, and his defensive liabilities are abundantly obvious if he cannot contribute in a two-way setup. Now, with two seasons left on his current deal, a buyout would offer the Blues some immediate flexibility without the long-term consequences that Armstrong would have to face with either Faulk or Krug.

The Blues would see some significant immediate savings from buying Leddy out, and wouldn’t suffer too terribly in the “ghost” seasons of 2026-27 and 2027-28, owing just over $1 million in buyout penalties. But much like Faulk, those numbers won’t matter much to Armstrong if his mindset is to compete now. Scandella survived for several seasons on a bad contract playing limited minutes, because the Blues felt that buying him out did not offer enough flexibility to warrant the pain. The same will probably be true with Leddy.

Krug Has to Be Considered

Let’s be clear: fans hoping that Armstrong will rid the team of a troublesome contract through a buyout this summer shouldn’t hold their breath. He has had ample opportunity and motivation to issue buyouts before, and has refused to do so. At this point, it seems unlikely that he ever will. But a buyout of Krug has to be considered for three main reasons: 1) the Blues would save over $10 million in the next two seasons, enough to add a significant contributor (or two) to the roster if the team hopes to make the postseason again. 2) The $2.3 million owed Krug during the “ghost” seasons of 2027-2030 would be painful, but with the cap going up, the impact should be minimal. 3) The Blues have already tried to offload Krug’s contract and failed, and he performed worse than ever this season. They might be out of other options.

With that said, Armstrong’s past indicates that a buyout is unlikely. But if he wants to compete, he has to make some major moves towards restructuring his defense. Could desperate times call for the most desperate measures of his career? The buyout deadline occurs on June 30th this summer. We will know by then what path Armstrong chose.